Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-02 89189.764963 94083.572718 98973.691337 104223.378094 109696.086423 115229.632703 121244.114646
2025-02-09 81130.703503 88629.180153 96329.620625 104817.947601 113901.460418 123319.681066 133812.330316
2025-02-16 74901.310107 84132.027021 93818.348756 104718.879540 116622.030669 129203.227968 143484.060985
2025-02-23 70495.239054 81050.455710 92327.956241 105237.909811 119570.773353 134958.364148 152689.688932
2025-03-02 66621.115388 78192.017692 90752.381399 105347.315791 121785.407529 139671.978432 160550.180880
2025-03-09 64120.158341 76645.128583 90432.973888 106665.589424 125178.617098 145558.904812 169613.383700
2025-03-16 60872.072217 74043.558269 88737.645244 106252.901207 126465.313872 148959.892263 175785.247590
2025-03-23 59172.272969 73106.962221 88838.070045 107796.341832 129901.992176 154739.330529 184626.320047
2025-03-30 57307.892115 71866.986023 88489.997741 108732.710687 132568.124732 159590.000331 192380.645279
2025-04-06 55203.828327 70238.788847 87594.368672 108942.333063 134316.339810 163329.846832 198820.671017
2025-04-13 53137.848193 68563.852454 86560.027606 108910.101372 135714.553516 166614.287431 204700.648055
2025-04-20 52188.638111 68191.176020 87037.425765 110644.968999 139183.819325 172320.693879 213438.823326
2025-04-27 51245.282565 67809.063390 87501.977390 112382.076229 142698.079903 178150.175029 222432.612785
2025-05-04 49877.334593 66849.830749 87223.122868 113185.806497 145073.107915 182629.538664 229850.436405
2025-05-11 48161.614890 65391.214360 86273.989118 113117.310321 146348.932110 185767.654596 235655.253894
2025-05-18 46857.677327 64404.036873 85865.434573 113677.718683 148365.514733 189784.867732 242524.019918
2025-05-25 45421.901227 63196.659114 85135.306206 113795.883617 149804.533886 193081.961061 248516.419814
2025-06-01 44663.508607 62833.443891 85444.676550 115199.321156 152829.672594 198320.969926 256902.560949
2025-06-08 43114.351399 61387.824480 84331.014949 114760.189403 153517.339627 200665.083585 261726.824851
2025-06-15 42565.352663 61237.219937 84860.473392 116402.741888 156821.426956 206253.123341 270583.386899
2025-06-22 41766.971128 60726.394046 84900.636437 117399.097579 159298.463684 210816.965060 278190.001304
2025-06-29 40680.319442 59794.807273 84362.734540 117622.135157 160771.779857 214119.271197 284230.706255
2025-07-06 39537.409795 58752.798411 83648.834574 117587.841361 161893.585221 216968.487416 289705.203691